By Rory Fleming-Stewart
Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was recently overthrown in the country's fifth coup d'état since gaining independence from France in 1960. Bazoum was detained by his own Presidential Guard unit and placed on house arrest, with the unit's commander, Gen. Tchiani, later declaring himself head of state.
African and Western governments halted vital imports and financial aid to the country, with threats of military intervention if the newly formed military junta failed to reinstate the president. Branding the move as 'illegal' and 'inhumane', the junta moved to demand the expulsion of 1500 French troops deployed on training and counter-terrorism operations in Niger by the end of the year.
The French withdrawal threatens to further destabilise a region already facing immense poverty, ethnic and religious violence and climate-change-fuelled resource insecurity and is emblematic of the decline of western influence in the region. Three months on, inter-state tensions appear to be settling and with growing popular support, the junta insists on the original withdrawal deadline being met.
July 26th: The Day of the Coup
Niger's Presidential Guard unit mutinied, locking down the Presidential Palace and nearby ministries in the capital Niamey. A stand-off ensued in which supporters of the President, who had gathered outside the palace, were eventually dispersed after an exchange of gunfire. One civilian casualty was reported.
The president and his family were detained and placed under house arrest at their residence within the palace compound. A statement was later issued on state outlet Télé Sahel by Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane of Niger's Air Force, announcing the overthrow of the president and the formation of a provisional government; The National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP). A deterioration of the country's security situation and poor management of social and economic issues were stated as the mutineers' motives for seizing power. In the same address, the Colonel-Major announced the dissolution of the country's constitution, suspension of state institutions, closure of its borders and airspace, and the implementation of a nation-wide curfew.
Pro-Junta crowds later stormed Bazoum's party headquarters and surrounded the French embassy in Niamey. There was a strong anti-French sentiment amongst the demonstrators, with many of them flying Russian and Wagner Group flags.
Wagner is a Russian mercenary and logistics organisation with a large presence in North Africa and the Sahel. Its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was recently killed in a plane crash following a mutiny he led against the Kremlin in June. No credible evidence of Russian governmental nor Wagner involvement in overthrowing Bazoum has been produced to date. The flags were likely used by supporters of the new regime as blatant anti-western symbols.
For many in the Niger – and Francophone Africa as a whole – a French military presence has come to exemplify the shadow of colonialism and the exploitative relationships that endured, having left many African states impoverished and dependant on foreign aid. Russia and China are seen as promising alternatives to western partnership, the latter having been especially proactive in African development over the past decade.
July 28th – August 8th: A New Regime and International Sanctions
Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani addressed the nation on July 28th, declaring himself president of the CNSP while scolding the deposed president for his handling of the country's affairs. Tchiani was the commander of the mutinied presidential guard and had purportedly fallen out of favour with Bazoum preceding the coup, having been marked for replacement.
In his TV address, Tchiani criticized the former administration's failure to cooperate with neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso, on regional issues. Both states have been under military rule since 2021 and 2022 respectively. It is unclear whether the coups were coordinated to any extent. However, they do frame a surge in political instability across the Sahel in recent years. Since 2020, Sudan, Chad, Mali, and Guinea have fallen to military regimes. Unsuccessful attempts also took place in Guinea-Bissau and Niger.
Bazoum has been allowed contact with the outside world and is alive as it stands. It is likely that the junta intends to hold the former president as a bargaining chip for further negotiations with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Western Powers.
On August 8th, the CNSP appointed Ali Lamine Zeine as Prime Minister with a civilian cabinet, presumably in an effort to bring legitimacy to the transitional government. The junta later announced a three-year transition of power, after which national elections will be held.
On the day of Prime Minister Zeine's appointment, ECOWAS implemented a portfolio of sanctions against Niger including the suspension of all commercial transactions, the freezing of its assets held within the regional central bank, and all development aid. The announcement followed declarations by the European and African Unions, halting financial aid payments to the country a week prior.
Reuters reported that of Niger's annual budget of 3.2 trillion Central African Francs (CFA), around 342 billion CFA was expected to come from external budget support and loans. A further 975 billion CFA from project grants and external partners. Effectively, Niger will lose 40% of its overall budget due to these sanctions. This is likely to prove devastating to what is already one of the world's most impoverished nations.
Although much dependent on foreign aid, Niger is resource-rich. The country is host to approximately 5% of the world's uranium mining output and has large gold and fossil fuel deposits. Though its landlocked status renders it dependent on countries such as Nigeria or Benin for export. Proposed Chinese projects in the country, such as a new oil pipeline through Benin, have been delayed in light of recent events.
Niger is also reliant on its neighbour Nigeria – the largest economy and military power in ECOWAS, as three-quarters of its electricity supply which has been cut since the coup. Subsequently, Niger is experiencing rolling blackouts which further limit its industrial capabilities. Many Nigeriens living in border regions depend on cross-border trade and employment which has been greatly affected by the closures and embargoes. Niger is already one of Africa's poorest countries, with a GDP per capita of just $590 USD and has the world's highest birth rate. Rising inflation due to the imposed sanctions and embargoes could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, likely to further destabilise the greater Sahel and set Niger's development back an unquantifiable degree.
October 10th: France Begins Its Withdrawal
The first convoy of French forces withdrew from Niger, bound for Chad on October 10th. French president Emanuel Macron has stressed France's willingness to continue supporting African nations in their fight against Islamist insurgency, though only at the request of democratically elected authorities.
Approximately 1500 French troops have been stationed in Niger, training the country's armed forces and supporting them in counter-insurgency operations. Niger's border areas often witness jihadist violence, with significant activity from Boko Haram in the south, and IS and Al-Qaida affiliates in the north. Deaths caused by jihadist militancy in the Western Sahel have increased five-fold since 2016, with over 4000 reported in 2019 alone.
Since the withdrawal began, Niger has witnessed increasingly violent attacks. The largest of which occurred on October 3rd in Tahoua, where over 100 IS-aligned insurgents purportedly ambushed a Nigerien army unit, resulting in 29 deaths. This followed a similar attack on September 28th which left 12 Nigerien soldiers dead and a further 7 injured. Defence minister Salifou Mody stated that several hundred insurgents had engaged the army unit in the Tillaberi region, close to the Burkina Faso and Mali borders.
Such attacks will inevitably prove a delegitimising factor for the new government, having used security issues for justification in seizing power. However, the country's problem with jihadism is unlikely to end soon. The geography and conditions in the Western Sahel are optimum for such groups' operation and recruitment. Niger's vast borders render policing a mammoth task, especially with limited resources and lacking foreign assistance. Ethnic territorial disputes are only deepening as climate change-induced drought depletes potential grazing land and for young men in rural areas, militant groups present employment opportunities where there are few, if any alternatives.
Looking Forward
With French forces on track to leave Niger by the end of 2023, the future of the CNSP and the country as a whole is precarious. The interim government must gain international legitimacy in order to resume vital trade relations and financial aid, thus avoiding collapse. This Thursday, PM Zeine gave a BBC interview expressing the regime's concerns about the enduring sanctions stating: "No country in the world has ever experienced such injustice". The PM also addressed the junta's economic and security intentions.
It is clear that many in the country feel victimised by the international community, something that may feed the existing anti-westernism expressed in recent events. Perhaps expanding relations with Russia and China will prove necessary to establish lasting stability in the country. After all, it is difficult to imagine foreign powers turning a blind eye to Niger's natural riches. Certainly, if such stability cannot be established, a humanitarian disaster in Niger will not be confined to the greater Sahel but will bleed across borders, seas, and continents.
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and may not reflect the opinions of the St Andrews Economist.
Image Source: Getty Images
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