Hurricane Milton loss estimates diverge, latest more optimistic

Still a wide range, but it will be a manageable impact to cat bond and ILS investments ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Web version |  Update preferences |  Forward Milton indications suggest manageable ILS market loss Hurricane Milton: Risk modeller loss estimates still in wide range This week we've seen industry loss estimates for hurricane Milton from four of the leading catastrophe risk modellers, with some divergence apparent. We reported: Karen Clark & Company put the total as close to $36bn, excluding NFIP losses. Verisk was next, putting insured losses in a range from $30bn to $50bn, excluding the NFIP. Moody's RMS put the total (ex-NFIP) at between $22bn and $36bn, with a best estimate of $26bn. Finally, CoreLogic said between $17bn and $28bn, but including the NFIP. Across these four estimates, from leading catastrophe risk modellers, we have a range of as low as $17bn right up to $50bn, reflecting the continued uncertainty in hurricane Milton's impacts. However, the averages look much more reasonable and perhaps a better way to think of the potential end-result, from a low-end $23bn, to a high-end estimate of $38bn, with a mid-point of almost $32bn. It's a tough comparison with only one including the NFIP, so if we attempt to back that out of the CoreLogic estimate, the averages move to $22bn to $37bn, with a mid of $31bn. Of this estimated total, at this time the pricing of catastrophe bonds and NAVs of cat bond funds imply a $200m to $300m loss to the market. Read all of our Milton coverage. Please share this with colleagues and friends if you think they would like to receive it. If you've been forwarded this but want to subscribe, visit Artemis.   You may be receiving this because you recently attended an industry event we partnered with, giving us permission to email you. If you don't want to receive our weekly ILS, catastrophe bond and reinsurance capital newsletter please Unsubscribe  or Edit your subscription here . © Steve Evans Ltd. - Artemis.bm