El Nino is expected to be a factor and could be robust, with ramifications for storm formation and also higher windshear
CSU's April 2026 hurricane season forecast
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CSU forecasts “somewhat below-normal” 2026 Atlantic hurricane season
 The Colorado State University (CSU) tropical meteorology team has issued its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for “somewhat below-normal” levels of activity, citing the potential for a robust El Niño and associated increases in vertical wind shear as key factors.
The CSU April forecast calls for 13 named tropical storms in the 2026 Atlantic season, with 6 becoming hurricanes and 2 achieving Category 3 strength or greater to become major hurricanes. That’s below the 1991 to 2020 average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. In addition the forecast calls for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) at an index level of 90, again below the 1991 to 2020 average of 123.
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