The US weather agency has just issued its forecast for the coming season, citing El Nino as a key factor
NOAA: 55% chance of below-normal hurricane season
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NOAA forecasts 55% chance of below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as El Nino nears
 US weather agency NOAA anticipates an 82% chance of El Niño between May to July and with the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation seen to moderate tropical activity in the Atlantic, the first forecast from NOAA for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is for a 55% chance of below-normal activity levels.
For the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, beginning June 1st, NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasts 8 to 14 named tropical storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes, and between 1 and 3 intense hurricanes of Category 3 strength or greater.
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