What to Know for Thursday, March 12, 2026:

1: Oil price surge could boost your 2027 Social Security COLA — but may not be enough

(Image credit: Bloomberg)

Current estimate: 1.7% COLA for 2027: Based on February inflation data, next year's cost-of-living adjustment is projected at just 1.7% — but that could rise significantly if oil prices stay elevated after the Iran conflict winds down, with the official announcement coming in October.
Gas prices jumped $0.60/gallon since war started: Brent crude oil prices have risen about 30% since the Middle East conflict began, and the COLA calculation heavily weights gasoline prices — March inflation data will likely show a much bigger increase than February's 2.2%.
COLA often falls short of actual costs: While a higher COLA helps offset increased energy costs (including home heating oil and natural gas), it typically doesn't keep up with retirees' expenses — medical care services rose 4.1% in February versus 2.4% overall inflation, and many seniors must cut travel and discretionary spending when essentials get more expensive.

➜ Read the full story from Barrons here.

2: Secret Medicare trap could cost you $400+ monthly when you sell your home in retirement

(Image credit: Getty Images)

The 2-year lookback rule catches seniors off guard: Medicare looks back 2 years at your tax return to calculate IRMAA premiums — if you sell your home at age 64 with $300,000 in taxable gains, your Medicare premiums could jump from $406/month to over $800/month starting in 2027 when you're already on Medicare.
Home appreciation makes it worse: The $500,000 capital gains exclusion for married couples hasn't changed since 1997, but home values in major markets are up 300-500% — a couple who bought in coastal California in the early '90s can easily have $800,000 to $1.5 million in appreciation, triggering massive IRMAA surcharges.
How to avoid the trap: Sell your home before age 63 to avoid the rule entirely, or consider aging in place if you're already over 63 — alternatively, accept it as a one-time cost since your premiums will normalize once that high-income year falls off the two-year lookback window.

➜ Read the full story from Fortune here.

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3: Former Social Security employee warns staffing cuts could "collapse" the program

(Image credit: Newsweek)

14-year veteran sounds alarm: Bob Caldwell, who worked at SSA for 14 years, warns that sustained staff reductions could threaten the entire program's integrity — "I noticed how easy it would be to collapse the entire program — understaffing, even before DOGE. They are cutting staff and making it harder to get services."
Service delays hitting 71 million beneficiaries: After DOGE layoffs, beneficiaries report long phone hold times and extended waits for in-person appointments — nearly 40% of retirees depend on Social Security for their full retirement income and "operated under one set of rules their entire working lives," making it too late to make new choices.
Local protests emerge in California: Residents gather every Thursday outside the Chico Social Security office holding signs to support workers and raise concerns about weakening services — organizers say the demonstrations began as appreciation for workers but have taken on greater urgency as staffing declines make it harder to resolve account issues or get timely help.

➜ Read the full story from Newsweek here.

Here's What You Missed on YouTube:

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